Dan Flynn | Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

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Presentation Description

The maritime sector accounts for approximately 3% of all global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with a significant fraction of that due to freight transport by sea. Per the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the contribution of maritime shipping to global GHG emissions will continue to grow without policy action, by 16% from 2018 to 2030 and by 50% out to 2050. To determine the impact of different policies, regulations, and incentives on maritime shipping emissions, decisionmakers need a scenario analysis tool to map changes in maritime fueling decisions and technology adaptations to relative reduction in GHG emissions from the current baseline.

The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has developed a bottom-up Maritime Energy, Noise, and Emissions Model (MENEM) in support of the Maritime Administration (MARAD) Office of Environment and Innovation, and the Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), in consultation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The model and corresponding visualizations of maritime energy and fuel use, emissions inventory, and source level noise will support US government strategies to facilitate the decarbonization of the maritime transportation sector. The model will be used to quantify and map greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions from maritime transportation in the US.

MENEM provides estimates of fuel burn and GHG emissions based on maritime vessel traffic data, considering vessel-specific characteristics, vessel activity, and fuel choice. GHG emissions are reported by vessel type, time, and geographic region, including by port and for different inland waterway areas.

This presentation will focus on preliminary model analyses done for select ports in the US, specifically using the Port of Seattle area as an example. Fuel use and associated emissions estimates for the Pacific Northwest coastal region are provided for baseline years, by vessel type and operational mode. A sample scenario analysis of the consequences of increased uptake of alternative fuels by cargo ships in the Port of Seattle area is presented within the framework of MENEM, illustrating the planned use of the model for investigating advances in fuels and technologies, policy drivers, and their potential impact on GHG mitigation for the US. Planned analyses and future development of MENEM are discussed.

Speaker Biography

Dan Flynn, Ph.D., is a data scientist at the USDOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Energy Analysis & Sustainability Division. He has 20 years of experience in quantitative research on sustainability, climate science, transportation safety, and environmental science. His research projects span across transportation modes, using statistical tools to derive insights from and create compelling visualizations of complex data sets.

Flynn works on resilience of transportation systems to climate hazards, scenario modeling of policy scenarios for transportation sustainability, roadway safety analysis, novel sources of infrastructure data, and the use of using AI and machine learning to enhance public sector transportation research. He works with multiple U.S. DOT administrations and federal agencies, supporting the Offices of the Undersecretary of Transportation for Research and Policy, ARPA-I, MARAD, FHWA, FMCSA, NOAA, and USGS.

Co-presenters

Kevin Zhang
USDOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

Erika Sudderth
USDOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

Kristin Lewis
USDOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

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