Stephanie Kong | ICF Incorporated, L.L.C.

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Presentation Description

In 2024, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized the new Multi-Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty (LD, MD, HD) on-road vehicles and engines for model years (MY) 2027 to 2032 requiring auto and truck manufacturers to meet more stringent GHG and criteria pollutant emission standards. To comply with the stringent requirements of those regulations, vehicle manufacturers are expected to increase sales-percentages of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), such as battery-electric (BEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV). Simultaneously, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) imposed several regulations mandating ZEV sales for both light- and medium-/heavy-duty vehicles through 2036.

The successful implementation of these regulations will heavily rely on the existence of a widespread, accessible, and efficient network of charging and refueling stations. To better plan for the deployment of ZEVs and their infrastructure, it is important to fully comprehend the scope, costs, and timeframes involved in developing the ZEV infrastructure that will be needed to support the multiple state and federal ZEV regulations. This presentation evaluates the national demands and costs of the charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure necessary to support the transition of LD, MD, and HD vehicles to ZEVs. To evaluate the rate and scale of ZEV adoption, this study assumed that the adopted policies could be fully implemented at both national and state levels, and conducted extensive fleet modeling to estimate the number of various types of ZEVs (BEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs) at the state level, in five-year increments from 2025 through 2050. The number, capacity, hardware and installation costs, and timelines for creating the necessary charging and refueling stations to support the anticipated transition of U.S. on-road transportation sector to ZEVs were determined based on the fleet modeling exercise. By 2035, it is anticipated that more than 35% of LD fleets and roughly 20% of MDHD fleets will be ZEVs. Approximately $300 billion will need to be invested to install 7 million electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) ports and 1,600 hydrogen fueling stations across the country by 2035. These are unprecedented figures to consider as the number of ZEVs requiring charging and refueling access continues to grow. In addition, the study also evaluated the impact of fleet transition on the overall power sector by comparing the anticipated system load and capacity at Independent System Operators (ISO) level.

Speaker Biography

Dr. Stephanie Kong, is a Director of Transportation and Energy at ICF, based in Los Angeles, CA. Stephanie brings extensive expertise in zero-emission policy, transportation decarbonization, and alternative fuel vehicle infrastructure assessment. Her work also focuses on air pollution measurement, vehicle activity and emissions modeling, criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis.

With prior experience at the California Air Resources Board (CARB), she led the development of transportation emission modeling tools and played a key role in CARB’s medium-duty and heavy-duty electrification regulations, including the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation.

Stephanie received her Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from California Institute of Technology, where she focused on aerosol dynamics and air quality modeling using complex statistical and data analytical tools.

Co-presenters

Ramon Molina Garcia
ICF Incorporated, L.L.C.

Fang Yan
ICF Incorporated, L.L.C.

Duncan Crowley
ICF Incorporated, L.L.C.

Sam Pournazeri
ICF Incorporated, L.L.C.

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