Lead Presenter:  Scott Ramming | Professional Engineer II | Colorado Department of Transportation​​​​​​​

Presentation Description
Land use policy – specifically residential densification – may offer a common solution to two challenges faced by public land management agencies and their associated gateway communities: (1) the need for affordable workforce housing, and (2) the need to transition to less carbon-intensive forms of recreation and travel to mitigate the impacts of global climate change. Since land values near prime recreational areas tend to be high, denser housing spreads land costs among more households. Denser housing – particularly in conjunction with mixed-uses – can make active modes and transit more attractive.
The Colorado Department of Transportation, with the Colorado Energy Office, conducted a scenario analysis of several land use policy changes. Parcel-based pro forma analysis suggested that housing markets may support denser development in the gateway communities of Avon, Battlement Mesa, Breckenridge, Carbondale, Frisco, Fruita, Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Rifle, Silt, Silverthorne, Steamboat Springs and Woodland Park. Collectively, these communities are gateways for Colorado National Monument, Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument, Grand Mesa National Forest, Harvey Gap State Park, Mueller State Park, Pike National Forest, Rifle Falls State Park, Rifle Gap State Park, Routt National Forest and White River National Forest.
CDOT input the land use scenarios to its StateFocus activity-based travel demand model to examine how denser housing might affect mode shares and household vehicle miles traveled. The current version forecasts a spring or fall weekday, corresponding to travel patterns of all-year residents. Outside of the state’s five major metropolitan areas, forecasted weekday VMT decreased by 460,000 while GHG emissions decreased by 36,000 tons per year because of the land use changes.
This study aims to describe the model forecasts in terms of elasticities, to be more accessible to land managers or gateway community government staff. Additionally, it explores what buffer size of residential density is most correlated with changes in household VMT. It also assesses whether mixed-use density, which combines residential and employment densities, is more informative than residential density alone. Differences among gateway communities are also described.
CDOT is developing a finer statewide zone system and currently conducting a household travel survey to support modeling of summer, winter and weekend travel. Future research could examine whether results are transferrable across zone systems or to communities in other states. A similar approach could be adopted when a version of StateFocus forecasting weekend recreational travel becomes available.

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