On-Demand Transit in Belleville: the impacts on activity participation 

Abstract
Demand-responsive technologies are rapidly changing the transportation landscape. The City of Belleville, Ontario has recently replaced its evening and nighttime fixed route bus service with an on-demand transit (ODT) service. Preliminary reports have found a 300% increase in nighttime bus ridership since the implementation of this service, yet to fully understand the social return on the investment in on-demand services, we must also quantify whether and for whom these new services have enabled time savings and increased levels of activity participation. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether riders are satisfied with the service, and whether satisfaction levels have an impact on activity participation. As such, this study explores the determinants of activity participation of ODT users using a custom ridership survey instrument. We collect information on travel experience, satisfaction, and perceived changes in activity participation due to ODT. We then performed a factor analysis and estimated structural equation models to identify the relationships between aspects of the ODT service and activity participation. Our results show that reliability and service quality are the most important aspects of the ODT services in terms of positively influencing activity participation, and that shorter wait times, are most likely to lead to an increase in activity participation. Our findings further suggest that Belleville can eliminate barriers to nighttime activity participation by providing reliable and affordable ODT service, and that ODT can be an effective solution to provide transit services for transport-poor in low-demand areas or during low demand periods of the day.