Lead Presenter Biography

Jay Evans has more than 25 years of experience in multimodal transportation planning and travel demand forecasting. A co-principal investigator and primary author of many chapter volumes of the acclaimed Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes Report 95 series, Jay enjoys guiding decision makers in selecting and applying appropriate tools to inform investment decisions around mobility services and infrastructure. He has developed and applied travel forecasting models, managed long range plans and major investment studies, and led several travel forecasting methods and applications guidance efforts.

For the National Highway Cooperative Research Program (NCHRP) Implementation Program Project 20-44(32), "Guidelines for Selecting Travel Forecasting Methods and Techniques—Implementation," Jay served as Co-Principal Investigator and helped organize and conduct four workshops and a peer exchange with participants from a variety of state Departments of Transportation and Metropolitan Planning Organizations to raise awareness and inform refinements to TF-Guide, a web-hosted expert system created under NCHRP Project 08-94 to inform the selection of travel forecasting methods and techniques for different planning applications.

Co-Authors

Presentation Description

Travel forecasting practitioners have asked for guidance on how to select travel forecasting methods for specific planning needs. Planners and modelers don’t speak the same language, so it can be difficult to translate modeling capabilities for addressing planning activities. Past guidance on travel forecasting methods was narrow and did not connect travel forecasting methods to planning activities. This guidance includes recommendations for applicable methods to evaluating agencies’ planning programs, desired performance metrics and requirements, within time and budget constraints. The resulting guidance was developed for TRB as part of the NCHRP 08-94 project and more recently updated as part of an implementation project for NCHRP 20-44(032). The guidance is provided by an online tool, TFGuide, which is a travel forecasting methodology decision support tool to help planners determine appropriate methods for travel demand forecasting needs at regional and state transportation agencies across the U.S.

The TFGuide expert system includes 32 planning programs, with a comprehensive set of requirements and performance metrics to define the planning needs for each program. The set of requirements and performance metrics represent the scope of the program, then constraints for timeframe and budget are included to provide guidance on resources (expertise, data, methods, hardware, and software) and methods that best meet the scope, schedule, and budget of the program. TFGuide provides recommendations given the identification of a specific use case, data, and tool availability, and needed performance measures.

The implementation project has focused on working with state DOTs and MPOs to apply the online tool and evaluate the recommendations for travel forecasting methods specific to a transportation plan or program. As part of the implementation project, RSG conducted four workshops for DOTs and MPOs in Kentucky, Minnesota, Florida, and Arizona, and a peer exchange for eight DOTs and MPOs on August 30, 2022, in Boise, Idaho. TFGuide was updated based on feedback from the workshop and peer exchange participants.

This presentation will highlight how using the TF Guide expert system can help planners and modelers make decisions about travel forecasting tools to support planning activities. TFGuide can be used as a screening tool to build or improve travel models developed by in-house staff or can be used as an educational tool for project managers who oversee the development and application of travel forecasting tools by consultants. An overview of the key components and input requirements will be included. TFGuide is free to use and is currently hosted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) with technical support by RSG.

https://tf-guide.org/welcome/ 

Presentation File