Lead Presenter Biography

Derek is a Principal Consultant at Steer, where he works with clients in a variety of capacities to make the business case for investment in large infrastructure projects. He enjoys combining quantitative analysis methods with a deep understanding of the surrounding policy context, in addition to strong project management, research, and communication skills.

Derek has successfully managed large projects and programs to accomplishment of their stated goals, most notably and recently the Link21 Program to transform rail service in Northern California. In these roles, he has effectively managed program timelines and budgets, prepared narratives and supporting evidence to build the case for further investment in said programs, and led large, diverse teams toward a common goal or target.

Co-Authors

Presentation Description

Major rail investments rely on market analyses to identify areas that would be feasible for passenger rail service during the early stages of project development. These analyses typically consider where people are currently traveling and where they want to travel in the future but stop short of asking what locations within the project’s study area have the greatest potential to support new, additional, or improved passenger rail service. At the same time, amid concerns of unequal access to public resources as well as the long-term impacts of historically underinvesting in communities that have been marginalized, cities and regions have sought to incorporate equity into their transportation planning and practices. As it relates to transportation, equity can be defined as ensuring that residents are able to reach destinations across a city or region in a timely and cost-effective manner, irrespective of their geographic location or socioeconomic status.

This paper presents a market analysis methodology that goes beyond a conventional analysis of existing and future travel patterns, by seeking to understand the potential for attracting new rail riders in a wide geography and for particular markets or corridors. This analysis uses a custom regression model to estimate the unmet ridership potential for markets and corridors, based on a variety of socioeconomic and rail level of service characteristics, and identify those with the highest unmet potential. It is guided by the overarching theme of equity and an emphasis on identifying potential benefits to historically disadvantaged and underserved populations.

This methodology is applied to a case study of the Link21 Program, a major opportunity to transform the passenger rail network in Northern California, centered around a new transbay passenger rail crossing between Oakland and San Francisco. The application found that significant unmet potential for transbay rail ridership exists in Northern California. This unmet potential is greatest at the core of the Megaregion closest to the Transbay Corridor—particularly in and around San Francisco and Oakland and to/from locations in inner East Bay cities between Richmond and Oakland. Selected markets further from the Transbay Corridor have relatively high to medium unmet transbay rail potential, particularly those without existing high quality transbay service (such as San Pablo, Hercules, Martinez, Vallejo, Napa, Fairfield, San Ramon, and parts of San Mateo County). Other markets have high non-transbay unmet rail potential (particularly in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties).

The findings demonstrate how a Market Analysis methodology featuring passenger rail potential analysis and an overarching emphasis on equity can be applied to similar analyses for other passenger rail and transportation investments. First, beyond existing and future travel patterns across all modes and distribution of population and employment, insight into where potential demand exists for the mode and service that are being considered for investment is a powerful insight that can provide direction in the specification and development of investment alternatives. Second, during such an exploration of potential demand, it is possible to emphasize the importance of serving certain equity-oriented population groups and influence the outputs and findings as such. 

Presentation File