John Bryant Cadiz | University of California - Davis ITS

Social Media Handle: @john.cadiz

Presentation Description

This study presents a hydrogen fuel supply chain analysis of the distribution and transmission networks to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of gaseous and liquid hydrogen (H2) transportation delivery modes via gas trucks, liquid trucks, and pipelines across multiple United States cities. Unlike previous research and models, this research integrates detailed information on hydrogen leakage rates to examine the additional cost implications of supplying more hydrogen and to offer a comprehensive understanding of the operational and economic aspects of establishing resilient hydrogen infrastructure, filling a notable gap in the existing literature.

Through a sensitivity analysis considering hydrogen costs of production, distribution, transmission and station operations, and final cost to truck operators, compared to that for diesel, a more robust picture will emerge regarding the potential for hydrogen to compete and what the key cost factors are. This will include factors that have not received much attention, such as H2 station design, size, and utilization rates; H2 system leakage rates; electricity input costs ($/kWh); fuel prices; and other truck operating costs. The study identifies the significant influences on hydrogen delivery costs, emphasizing the importance of minimizing losses and enhancing hydrogen transport networks’s efficiency. The findings highlight the relative cost of liquid and gaseous trucks at lower demands; however, pipelines become more cost-effective due to economies of scale and efficiency gains of pipelines as demand and the distance of transportation increases. The results suggest that station scale economies and the development of larger hydrogen systems that can support low-cost pipeline delivery methods are essential for reducing hydrogen costs and eventually becoming competitive with diesel fuel for trucks.

The study performs a Monte Carlo analysis with the parameters analyzed in the sensitivity analysis to shed light on the complex uncertainties and dynamics within the hydrogen market and provide a framework to guide future hydrogen infrastructure investments under shifting economic uncertainties within the United States. Using cumulative distribution functions of each delivery method’s cost distributions, the study explores the stochastic dominance of the Monte Carlo outputs to see if any delivery mode is universally preferred for all stakeholders under varying demands and geographic scales. By highlighting the interplay between technological and economic factors, the recommendations prioritize investments in technologies that reduce hydrogen leakage and scale up infrastructure based on the anticipated hydrogen demand. A strategic approach is crucial to realizing the economic benefits of transitioning to a hydrogen-powered transportation sector under uncertainty.

Speaker Biography

John Cadiz is a Ph.D. student and researcher at UC Davis studying Transportation Technology and Policy as a Eugene Cota-Robles Fellow. His research focuses on the hydrogen fuel delivery supply chain, specifically understanding the cost and environmental implications of delivering hydrogen fuel from production to stations. Originally from the Central Valley of California, he is passionate about providing a voice and an outlet for communities and businesses to shape their future with sustainability and equity at the forefront of every decision.

He has previously researched institutional barriers to new transportation technology adoption and has contributed to multiple projects that promote sustainability awareness, pathways, and education for new decarbonization technology adoption from organizations like the U.S. Green Chamber of Commerce to METRANS. He has worked with zero-emission technology deployment as an EDF Climate Corps Fellow at the Bay Area Rapid Transit Agency and as a Junior Policy Fellow at Elemental Excelerator. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a B.S. in Civil Engineering and from USC with a Master of Urban Planning degree, focusing on sustainable policy and planning.

Co-presenters

Laura Restrepo
University of California - Davis ITS

Christoper Yang
University of California - Davis ITS

Lew Fulton
University of California - Davis ITS

Presentation File