Matthew Bruchon | National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Social Media Handle: @MatthewBruchon

Presentation Description

Greenhouse gas emissions from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDV) in the United States increased both in absolute terms—rising 76% from 1990 to 2021—and also relative to other sources of transportation sector GHGs. Policies to encourage MHDV decarbonization, including electrification, have been enacted federally and in some states. However, there is uncertainty around which vocations (e.g., last-mile delivery versus long-haul freight) may electrify rapidly, which may have pronounced grid impacts, and which may serve as a shiftable load using smart charge management strategies.

We synthesize findings from recent National Renewable Energy Laboratory projects characterizing MHDV travel patterns, potential charging patterns if electrified, and electric load flexibility. To provide context, we briefly summarize zero-emission vehicle technology cost-competitiveness estimates from the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model. We then describe MHDV EV charging loads and a load flexibility analysis framework from the Flexible charging to Unify the grid and transportation Sectors for EVs at scale (FUSE) project. Finally, we describe a new public dataset summarizing nationally averaged travel patterns and potential charge loads across MHDV vocations.

The FUSE project estimates distribution system impacts from electric MHDV in the year 2040 for two regions of Virginia. We build travel and charging schedules for local delivery trucks and vans (using Geotab telematics data) and buses. We also combine telematics and public data to model travel of three vocations likely to require mid-route charging: long-haul, first-mile drayage, and regional freight. From estimated charging schedules, we propose and demonstrate a novel mathematical framework to quantify degree of coincidence and (short- and long-term) flexibility of each vocation’s charging load.

Complementing the FUSE regional analysis, we apply vocationally tailored methods and data to seven diverse regions of the U.S. and estimate nationally averaged travel schedules and potential charging loads for buses and five vocational styles of freight, ranging from long-haul to last-mile delivery. This analysis resulted in a publicly released dataset.

Taken together, the regional analysis and national dataset highlight potential challenges and opportunities related to MHDV electrification. For example, long-haul freight travel patterns suggest “long-dwell” charging may be insufficient. On the other hand, local delivery vans often have relatively long, consistent domicile dwells (both in Virginia and nationally). Our analysis of these loads and our framework for modeling their flexibility can inform grid planners, fleets, and policymakers on the potential of managed load programs to mitigate grid impacts.

Speaker Biography

Matt Bruchon is a Researcher at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences. He leads efforts to build models and conduct analyses of vehicle decarbonization pathways, with a specialization in fleet operations, grid impacts, economics, and emissions. His current research focuses on commercial vehicles, ranging from local delivery vans to port equipment to trains. Prior to joining NREL, he completed a Ph.D. in Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University's Vehicle Electrification Group, where he modeled policies to improve emissions, traffic, and equity impacts of shared and electrified transportation systems using optimization, machine learning, and econometrics. He also has worked as a data scientist and software engineer for federal and commercial clients, and he earned Master's degrees in Technology Policy and Electrical Engineering & Computer Science from M.I.T.

Co-presenters

Tim Jonas
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Yi He
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Brennan Borlaug
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Jiayun Sun
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Presentation File