Christopher Hoehne | National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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Presentation Description

The 2023 U.S. Transportation Decarbonization Blueprint outlines a path to achieve sector-wide decarbonization through a combination of convenient, efficient, and clean strategies. Yet, there is a lack of research looking at national-scale future impacts of convenience-focused strategies, especially the role of travel demand management. This presentation will overview recent and ongoing research led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Golden, CO) and utilizing the national-scale forward looking TEMPO model to address these needs. First, we will overview a recently published study using TEMPO that assessed uncertainty and sensitivity in meeting 2050 transport decarbonization goals across levers of technology advancement, policy, and behavioral change. In addition to a clean electric grid and rapid zero-emission vehicle adoption, we highlight the importance of managing demand growth to support deep emissions reductions and complementing electrification by curbing growth in sector electricity demand. Second, we will discuss preliminary modeling aligned with previous literature that shows how shifting patterns of housing density and infill development across the US could lead to reductions in national household VMT of at least 6%. Additional scenarios are being developed to understand the role of changing transit availability and service quality as well as potential for telework to further reduce VMT and emissions at the national scale. Last, we will overview a multi-lab project aimed at extending high-fidelity, regional modeling (via Argonne’s POLARIS model) to the national scale to develop nationwide county-level quantitative results and insights (with TEMPO). This work is being guided by a steering committee of experts across multiple organizations including state DOTs, federal stakeholders (DOE, DOT, HUD, EPA, FTA), and experts in commuter travel (ACT, Stanford, Commutifi).

Speaker Biography

Dr. Hoehne is a Mobility Systems Research Scientist and project leader at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in the Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences. His research focuses on computational modeling and analysis of transportation systems. His research interests include accessibility, decarbonization, parking, land use, equity, and urban heat.

Co-presenters

Matteo Muratori
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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