Michael Lawrence | Jack Faucett Associates, Inc.

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Presentation Description

The recent Inflation Reduction Act and similar subsidies have facilitated state, county, and city governments increasingly in transitioning to clean energy technologies while fostering job creation. However, the decision-making process for selecting the most advantageous technology necessitates a comprehensive economic impact analysis to determine which options will generate the most employment opportunities and revitalize specific economic sectors. This presentation presents our team's approach and findings from performing such analyses on various clean energy technologies in the State of New York, including electric vehicle powertrains, air source heat pumps, onshore and offshore wind farms, and lithium battery energy storage facilities.

Our methodology involves a multi-scenario analysis based on the current and optimistic Local Purchasing Percentage (LPP) contingent on potential sector-specific investments. Initial job impact assessments are derived from cost breakdowns aligned with the State or municipality's energy goals, leveraging the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), wherever applicable. For technologies not covered by JEDI, we incorporate comprehensive cost assumption breakdowns based on further research and project-specific details.

The Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) program analyzes the macroeconomy. Using IMPLAN's zip-code-specific data, we evaluated the existing economic landscape and projected job creation potential across various sectors. This enables the simulation of scenarios anticipating economic growth, even where current data is lacking, providing a robust framework for comparative analysis between different clean energy technologies.

Our findings demonstrate significant job creation and sector revitalization potential through strategic investments in clean energy technologies. By offering a comparative analysis of various scenarios, our research assists municipalities in making informed decisions tailored to their unique energy needs and economic objectives. Furthermore, this work underscores the capability to conduct detailed economic impact analyses for various technologies to transition to clean energy and stimulate economic growth. The methodology underscores the capability to conduct detailed economic impact analyses across various technologies, facilitating transitions to clean energy and stimulating economic growth.

This analysis was conducted for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). One example focuses on a hypothetical 1005MW offshore wind farm. Utilizing the JEDI model to assist with initial data input, our study incorporated a detailed cost breakdown covering various project phases, including construction, manufacturing, engineering, taxation, etc. The findings for this project showcase the estimated growth percentages in key industries and the components included in our output definitions.

Speaker Biography

Michael Lawrence has experience applying IMPLAN, Remi PI+, and RIMS II to the macroeconomic impact analysis of transportation, occupational health, energy, and environmental investments. He has published reports in all of these areas.

His studies for DOT have included Apportionment formula development, alternative fuel impact on the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), fuel tax evasion, HERS model development, as well as contributions to Truck Size & Weight (TS&W), and Highway Productivity studies. He completed the development of eleven Transportation Energy Policy papers for Caltrans and the extension of the FHWA ITIC model for VDOT to evaluate mode shift and route choice when truck tolls are placed on selected highways. He conducted macroeconomic impact analyses of low-carbon fuel standards in California, Oregon, and Washington State.

He was a founding member of the TRB Congestion Pricing and Alternative Fuels Committees and a former Energy and Air Quality Committees member. He is the current Co-Chair of the Transportation Research Board Standing Committee on Economic Development and Land Use. His recent project work includes climate action plans in 20 states, freight and economic development case studies. He developed and led economic analysis workshops to train engineering and planning staff at twelve state DOT offices sponsored by FHWA.

Co-presenters

Dustin Avant
Jack Faucett Associates, Inc.

Sujit Das
Allegheny Science and Technology

Gregory Wilcox
Transportation Energy Consultant

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