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352-Shark Tank: Some Risks That Could Slow AV Deployment 

Date and Time: Wednesday, July 12, 2023: 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM
Location: Imperial B

Session Moderators and Organizers

MODERATORS
Richard Mudge, President and Founder, Compass Transportation and Technology

ORGANIZERS
Cynthia Jones, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board

TRB Sponsoring Committees and Partners

Session Description and Agenda

DESCRIPTION

An open debate regarding the policy, economic, and technology implications of several AV topics with strategic implications for the economy and society. Topics for this year cover several issues that may affect the success of automated vehicles and the pace of their deployment. These include: are the big-name AV firms missing some market opportunities? with the lack of federal legislation, does success in deployment depend on support from a city or state? What are the implications if China becomes the future leader in AV deployment?; and will the public policy focus on energy use become a problem for AVs?

• Have AVs missed the real deal by focusing on trucks and auto taxis?
• Do AVs require a friendly city or state to deploy?
• Is China the future of AVs?
• Are AVs bad for energy use?

AGENDA

Shark Tank emphasizes non-stop debate. Gaining new insights is our goal, rather than reaching consensus. The debate will be interesting and we hope entertaining. Most importantly, we expect to stimulate response from the audience.

Richard Mudge will moderate each session – and add his own opinion from time to time.

• 1:30 PM – 2:15 PM: Have AVs missed the real deal by focusing on trucks and auto taxis?

Private firms have raised billions of dollars to focus on developing intercity trucks and robo-taxis. The press spends most of their AV stories on these markets. Meanwhile, a growing number of markets exist in off-road applications, ports, truck parking, etc. Have the big firms missed real opportunities – and near-term profits?
• Speaker – Selika Talbot, USC

• 2:15 PM – 3:00 PM: Do AVs require a friendly city or state to deploy?

Does the pace of AV deployment depend on state or local political support? Most of the new deployments involve partnerships between an AV deployment and a state of city partner. Recent examples: State of Arizona and Waymo; San Francisco, Cruise and Waymo and state of California; State of Michigan and Cavnue. How do plans to deploy trucks on the Interstate differ? Do we need national legislation and regulations before we can move forward on a large scale?
• Speaker – Mark Scribner, Senior Transportation Policy Analyst, Reason Foundation

3:00 PM – 3:45 PM: Is China the Future of AVs?
China is very active in the AV market, with press reports of several deployments underway. Is China more the future of AVs than the US or Europe? Should we care? What is wrong is this simply speeds faster deployment of AVs? What can/should we do about this?
• Speaker – Bin Ran, Vilas Distinguished Acheivement Professor, Univeristy of Wisconsin

3:45 PM – 4:30 PM: Will AVs increase energy use: myth or reality?
There have been competing studies on this topic. A related question is whether or not AVs will increase VMT. Do AVs encourage EVs (a possible way to reduce petroleum use and probably energy use). Will a negative answer regarding energy use (or a belief) slow AV deployment?
Speaker – Sven Beiker, Silicon Valley Mobility

Sharks:

• Richard Mudge – Moderator, President, Compass Transportation and Technology
• Alain Kornhauser – Professor Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University
• Brad Templeton – technology guru
• Ellen Partridge
• Marie-France Laurin

Session Objectives